Contagion Economics

1. The Behavioral SIR Model, with Applications to the Swine Flu and COVID-19~Pandemics, by Sam Engle, Marianna Kudlyak, Jussi Keppo, Elena Quercioli, Lones Smith, and Andrea Wilson — coming very soon, but presented on VirtualMacro on 4/10 (Youtube here).   Slides here. <——-

We consider a random encounter game with standard additive preferences over expected contagion losses and vigilance, given a constant elasticity between vigilance and infection transmission reduction. Our theory shows that the Nash equilibrium modifies the linear SIR model to a just as tractable log-linear model. Geometric growth replaces exponential growth

Our theory makes sense of the lockdowns too

2. Strategically Rational Risk Taking by Age in COVID-19, and the Heterogeneous Agent Behavioral SIR Model

Fun fact: our behavioral SIR model makes sense of this wonderful youtube video of COVID data: